公开测试版预报会在新模型数据可用时持续更新并接受历史验证。
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Forecast Verification & Local Calibration

预报验证与 Glenlea 本地校准

永久保存“当时模型预测了什么”，在时间过去后只使用带来源和质量等级的实际观测验证。当前阶段只记录、统计和提出建议，不自动修改 Scoring V2。

Schema 1Production V2Calibration inactiveRaw snapshots preserved
Forecast Runs70永久快照批次
Forecast Values70869模型 × 有效小时
Actual Observations64带来源实况
Cloud Ground Truth31去重后的独立实况点
Calibration Evidence初步证据31 unique samples

Model Performance by Lead Time

Cloud 预报表现

不使用单一“准确率”；分别显示 MAE、Bias、False Clear、Clear Hit 和样本量。

模型时效Cloud MAEBiasFalse ClearClear Hit样本
GFSglobal_deterministic0_6h24%-3.8%23%87%133
中等证据
NBMblend0_6h25.4%-10.2%24%84%137
中等证据
ICONglobal_deterministic0_6h27.1%5.4%46%23%58
初步证据
HRDPScanadian_regional0_6h31.5%-21.6%45%86%52
初步证据
Astrosphericastrospheric_primary0_6h32.5%-26.7%33%100%15
样本不足
RDPScanadian_regional0_6h34.8%-27.6%48%87%52
初步证据
GFSglobal_deterministic12_24h28.3%-5.9%55%86%68
初步证据
Astrosphericastrospheric_primary12_24h31.1%-22.9%46%85%42
初步证据
NBMblend12_24h31.3%-20.2%68%100%102
中等证据
ICONglobal_deterministic12_24h38.1%-3.8%100%0%29
样本不足
HRDPScanadian_regional12_24h41.3%-28.1%67%33%29
样本不足
RDPScanadian_regional12_24h44.1%-39.8%67%100%33
初步证据
ICONglobal_deterministic24_48h10.7%10.7%——7
样本不足
NBMblend24_48h20.6%-6.9%——15
样本不足
GFSglobal_deterministic24_48h22%-3.2%——8
样本不足
RDPScanadian_regional24_48h23%-9.2%——10
样本不足
HRDPScanadian_regional24_48h26%-7.2%100%—8
样本不足
Astrosphericastrospheric_primary24_48h38.3%-32%80%—27
样本不足
GFSglobal_deterministic6_12h27.2%-13.2%42%96%79
初步证据
NBMblend6_12h29.1%-16.4%42%96%92
初步证据
ICONglobal_deterministic6_12h29.5%11.3%60%13%34
初步证据
RDPScanadian_regional6_12h31.9%-24.6%46%91%36
初步证据
Astrosphericastrospheric_primary6_12h32.1%-22.6%41%80%33
初步证据
HRDPScanadian_regional6_12h36.2%-16.5%52%54%39
初步证据

Forecast vs Actual

过去夜晚轨迹

2026-09-02 · 统一时间轴；实况始终保留来源与 Quality。

AstrosphericHRDPSRDPSGFSICONNBMActual
0%20%50%70%100%18:0020:0022:0000:0002:0004:0006:0008:00

Confidence Calibration

系统说的可信度可靠吗？

系统置信度档平均声明值实证可靠度样本证据
20-30%25%45%31初步证据
30-40%38%0%17样本不足
40-50%45%23%69初步证据
50-60%55%21%63初步证据
60-70%65%38%79初步证据
70-80%75%35%99初步证据
80-90%85%46%157中等证据
90-100%95%62%255中等证据

Decision Verification

出发建议验证

Samples0
Recommended Success—
Major Failure—
False Negative—

Decision outcomes currently require an explicit user field report; automatic station data does not silently decide whether an imaging trip succeeded.

Local Calibration · Shadow Mode

本地权重建议

自动评估继续运行，但具体权重、异常样本和实验细节只在管理员解锁后显示。Production V2 不会自动改变。

当前没有会改变 Production 的网页控制。自动评估继续在 Shadow Mode 运行。

Ground Truth Policy

实际天气可信等级

Forecast ≠ Observation；没有可靠实况就不生成验证结果。

Level AGlenlea local sensor, all-sky camera, weather station or reliable onsite instrument
Level BReliable satellite cloud product plus nearby official observation
Level CNearby official station observation; distance and method retained
Level DUser field observation; never overwrites automatic observations

Major Forecast Misses

重大翻车事件

重点记录模型报 Cloud ≤10%、实况却 ≥70% 等具有摄影意义的重大错误。

Major Cloud Miss

HRDPS · 2026-09-03 22:00 CDT

预测 0% · 实况 100% · Quality C
Major Cloud Miss

HRDPS · 2026-09-03 22:00 CDT

预测 0% · 实况 100% · Quality C
Major Cloud Miss

HRDPS · 2026-09-03 22:00 CDT

预测 0% · 实况 100% · Quality C
Major Cloud Miss

HRDPS · 2026-09-03 22:00 CDT

预测 0% · 实况 100% · Quality C
Major Cloud Miss

HRDPS · 2026-09-03 22:00 CDT

预测 0% · 实况 100% · Quality C
Major Cloud Miss

HRDPS · 2026-09-03 22:00 CDT

预测 0% · 实况 100% · Quality C
Major Cloud Miss

HRDPS · 2026-09-03 22:00 CDT

预测 0% · 实况 100% · Quality C
Major Cloud Miss

HRDPS · 2026-09-03 22:00 CDT

预测 0% · 实况 100% · Quality C

Actual Conditions Archive

最近实况记录

公开页面仅展示自动观测和经过匿名化处理的验证信息。完整反馈细节仅管理员可见。

OvercastQuality C

ECCC SWOB cloud · Winnipeg/James Armstrong Richard · 2026-09-03 22:00 CDT

ECCC SWOB reported total cloud amount percent.
气象观测Quality C

ECCC SWOB · KLEEFELD (MAFRI) · 2026-09-03 22:00 CDT

Nearby official in-situ station; not located at Glenlea.
OvercastQuality C

ECCC SWOB cloud · Winnipeg/James Armstrong Richard · 2026-09-03 21:21 CDT

Estimated total cover from the maximum ECCC SWOB total_cloud_amount layer code; the documented tenths/coverage range midpoint is used. Non-quantitative codes are ignored. This is not a direct Glenlea cloud sensor measurement.
OvercastQuality C

ECCC SWOB cloud · Winnipeg/James Armstrong Richard · 2026-09-03 21:00 CDT

Estimated total cover from the maximum ECCC SWOB total_cloud_amount layer code; the documented tenths/coverage range midpoint is used. Non-quantitative codes are ignored. This is not a direct Glenlea cloud sensor measurement.
气象观测Quality C

ECCC SWOB · KLEEFELD (MAFRI) · 2026-09-03 21:00 CDT

Nearby official in-situ station; not located at Glenlea.
Variable CloudQuality C

ECCC SWOB cloud · Winnipeg/James Armstrong Richard · 2026-09-03 20:00 CDT

Estimated total cover from the maximum ECCC SWOB total_cloud_amount layer code; the documented tenths/coverage range midpoint is used. Non-quantitative codes are ignored. This is not a direct Glenlea cloud sensor measurement.
气象观测Quality C

ECCC SWOB · KLEEFELD (MAFRI) · 2026-09-03 20:00 CDT

Nearby official in-situ station; not located at Glenlea.
OvercastQuality C

ECCC SWOB cloud · Winnipeg/James Armstrong Richard · 2026-09-03 19:00 CDT

ECCC SWOB reported total cloud amount percent.
气象观测Quality C

ECCC SWOB · KLEEFELD (MAFRI) · 2026-09-03 19:00 CDT

Nearby official in-situ station; not located at Glenlea.
气象观测Quality C

ECCC SWOB · KLEEFELD (MAFRI) · 2026-09-03 18:00 CDT

Nearby official in-situ station; not located at Glenlea.
OvercastQuality C

ECCC SWOB cloud · Winnipeg/James Armstrong Richard · 2026-09-03 18:00 CDT

Estimated total cover from the maximum ECCC SWOB total_cloud_amount layer code; the documented tenths/coverage range midpoint is used. Non-quantitative codes are ignored. This is not a direct Glenlea cloud sensor measurement.
OvercastQuality C

ECCC SWOB cloud · Winnipeg/James Armstrong Richard · 2026-09-03 17:00 CDT

Estimated total cover from the maximum ECCC SWOB total_cloud_amount layer code; the documented tenths/coverage range midpoint is used. Non-quantitative codes are ignored. This is not a direct Glenlea cloud sensor measurement.

Read-only Data Access

JSON / AI / MCP

验证总览 JSON模型表现 JSON实况来源 JSON只读 MCP

更新日志

记录每次公开版本实际更新的内容

v0.2.3

  1. v0.2.3 · 多尺寸界面一致性修复

    • 英文、法文指标不再从单词中间强制断行；手机端使用紧凑短标签，让逐小时各行保持等高。
    • 核心信号和未来夜晚的重点渐变、分隔线延伸到容器真实边缘，修复 iPhone 左侧被截断的空白。
    • 新增平板专用中间布局，大屏恢复天空轨迹图，并将主要交互控件扩大为舒适触控尺寸。
    • 补齐残留的中英法混排文字，并复测手机竖屏、平板、电脑下的简报、抽屉和逐小时详情。

  2. v0.2.2 · 竖屏逐小时预报优化

    • 手机竖屏恢复左侧结论、右侧评分环，并针对窄屏调整比例。
    • 逐小时天气带压缩固定指标栏与小时列，一屏可比较更多连续小时。
    • 新增贯穿表格的午夜日期分隔线、日期标签、当前时间提示和触控说明。
    • 完成中英法及多种手机竖屏比例测试，保留过去 24 小时与完整未来模型覆盖。

  3. v0.2.1 · 移动端排版与诊断

    • iPhone 尺寸下将评分环改为独立一行，给中英法长结论保留完整文字宽度。
    • 补齐动态英法界面翻译，并扩大设备比例和展开状态测试。
    • 新增脱敏诊断日志下载，以及随天气数据版本自动失效的页面缓存。

  4. v0.2.0 · 公开测试版观测简报

    • 上线夜间观测简报、逐小时天气带和未来夜晚比较。
    • 加入 Shadow Mode 预报验证，不自动修改正式评分。

网站意见反馈

发现翻译、排版、加载或天气页面问题？请先下载脱敏诊断日志，再将它附加到反馈邮件。日志只包含设备、屏幕、页面版本和加载耗时，绝不包含 Cookie、密码、API Key 或服务器日志。

公开测试版 · Winnipeg Time · America/Winnipeg

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