Public BetaForecasts are continuously updated and evaluated as new model data becomes available.

Night Mission Briefing

Glenlea Astronomical Observatory

Fresh · 14 min ago · Auto-updateSep 2 19:37 CDT

Is tonight worth the trip? · Scoring Engine V2

Worth the trip

Worth the trip. Best Imaging Window: 22:00–06:00。Primary risk: Dew-point spread is shrinking quickly; condensation risk is rising。

Condition Quality · best hour8/10
Best Imaging Window22:00–06:00 · 8 h
Primary failure riskDew-point spread is shrinking quickly; condensation risk is rising
Forecast Confidence85%
Best upcoming night2026-09-04 · 7.9/10 · 00:00–04:00 · 4 h

Tonight’s observation orbit

Sun, Moon & darkness

Astronomical calculation for Glenlea · 15-minute resolution

Sun altitudeMoon altitudeAstronomical darkness
Tonight’s Sun and Moon altitude at GlenleaCalculated every 15 minutes. Yellow is Sun altitude, blue is Moon altitude; the horizontal axis is Winnipeg Time and the vertical axis is altitude above the horizon. DaylightCivil twilightNautical twilightAstronomical twilightAstronomical darkness-40°-18°-12°-6°30°60°70°SunsetAstronomical night beginsMoonriseMoonsetAstronomical night endsSunrise 18:0020:0022:0000:0002:0004:0006:0008:00
22:00Sun -17.1°Moon 0°Moon illumination 63.7%Moon azimuth 51.5°

Select or drag to inspect any time; the arrow keys also work. On mobile, use the vertical night itinerary below.

  1. SunsetWinnipeg Time
  2. Civil duskWinnipeg Time
  3. Nautical duskWinnipeg Time
  4. MoonriseWinnipeg Time
  5. Best window beginsContinuous imaging window
  6. Astronomical night beginsWinnipeg Time
  7. Astronomical night endsWinnipeg Time
  8. Best window endsContinuous imaging window
  9. SunriseWinnipeg Time

Hourly Conditions Strip · Scoring Engine V2

Hourly Conditions Strip

Past 24 hours + full model forecast · one hour per column

GlenleaLocal time
BEST WINDOW22:00–06:00 · 8 h
58%46%31%30%20%46%31%8%2%3%9%12%10%7%6%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%6%19%30%51%95%99%98%89%70%48%72%98%79%92%89%97%98%98%83%60%58%49%92%73%79%66%50%32%12%7%8%11%17%24%2%0%2%7%28%55%94%91%75%85%78%93%93%60%31%24%31%16%6%1%0%0%0%0%1%3%21%69%71%72%83%100%100%100%100%100%57%58%87%59%60%62%20%12%13%11%5%33%76%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%92%88%85%84%91%100%84%84%82%75%65%67%63%70%74%69%61%55%54%56%58%51%29%38%43%45%51%67%75%77%78%78%93%93%88%83%68%70%74%71%65%61%62%65%
2927182317282414141414151315151313131313121111111213161825292929292929202929292929292929292929272926292728221414131313201313131316232929292929292928211622171312121313131314
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10°12°13°13°13°11°13°14°14°14°14°13°10°1.3°1.7°1.5°1.5°1.4°0.9°1.6°1.4°1.4°2.3°3.4°4.2°4.9°7.1°8.7°8.7°7.7°6.1°4.3°2.4°1.2°0.7°0.5°0.3°0.2°0.2°0.2°0.2°0.2°0.7°0.9°0.5°0.5°0.5°0.4°1.4°1.1°0.5°0.5°0.7°0.7°0.9°0.9°0.7°0.7°0.7°1.5°2.3°1.8°1.1°0.7°1.3°3.7°4.9°5.6°6.1°6.4°6.6°6.6°6.4°6.3°5.2°3.5°2.6°2.1°2.2°2.1°1.6°1.3°1.1°0.8°0.9°1.6°2.4°3.3°3.4°4.2°5.1°5.5°5.8°5.4°
13°-2°16°25°35°44°53°60°65°64°59°52°43°34°24°16°-4°10°18°27°37°46°55°63°67°67°61°54°44°35°26°17°-4°-3°10°18°28°37°46°55°63°68°67°62°54°45°36°26°17°-4°-4°17°26°36°45°54°61°66°66°61°53°44°35°25°16°15°24°33°42°51°58°62°62°58°50°41°32°22°13°-3°-4°12°21°30°39°48°54°58°57°52°45°37°27°18°18°27°36°43°49°52°51°46°39°31°21°12°
2222222225.587.47.47.57.37.77.67.75.522222222222221.11.52.84.82.52.52.52.52.52.21.91.422222222222225.57.46.387.87.77.35.94.41.71.622222222222225.55.52.52.55.5
5/55/54/54/54/54/54/53/54/53/54/54/54/54/54/53/53/54/54/54/54/53/54/54/53/53/52/52/53/52/50/50/50/50/52/53/53/50/50/50/53/50/50/50/54/54/54/54/50/54/54/54/53/54/54/54/54/54/54/53/54/54/53/53/53/54/50/50/53/53/53/50/50/53/54/53/52/53/53/53/53/53/53/53/53/53/5
21°23°23°24°25°25°25°25°22°20°18°17°16°16°15°15°14°14°13°13°15°18°22°24°26°27°28°28°28°28°27°25°19°19°19°18°18°18°18°18°18°18°18°18°18°19°20°22°23°24°24°25°25°25°25°25°23°21°20°19°19°18°18°18°18°18°18°19°20°20°22°23°24°25°27°28°28°28°28°27°25°23°22°21°20°19°20.6°20.8°20.3°19.9°19.9°19.5°20.3°20.5°20.8°21.3°22.2°22.9°23.4°25.3°26.7°26.9°26.4°25.4°23.9°21.9°20.3°19.3°18.7°18.3°18.2°18.4°18.6°18.7°18.8°19.1°19.6°19.9°19.7°19.8°19.6°19.4°19.4°19.6°20.1°20°19.7°19.8°19.8°19.8°19.9°19.9°19.9°20°20.3°19.2°17.6°16.6°15.8°15.4°15.4°15.9°16.8°17.6°18.4°19°19.6°20°20.1°19.9°19.3°19.1°18°16.6°15.6°14.9°14.7°14.3°13.6°13.3°13°12.6°12.1°12.2°13.1°14.4°15.5°16.3°17°17.6°18.2°18.6°18.8°18.7°18.2°
67%62%56%53%50%53%59%70%78%80%86%91%93%94%94%93%93%93%94%91%80%74%67%61%55%52%49%48%51%55%61%80%86%89%93%92%96%96%96%97%97%98%98%98%94%88%79%72%70%66%63%62%61%62%66%76%84%89%92%95%96%97%98%98%98%98%97%94%91%86%81%76%68%62%60%57%56%58%64%70%76%81%84%88%92%94%96%97%98%98%98%96%94%91%87%79%75%72%71%66%65%67%72%80%86%93%96%95%93%94%94%97%97%96%96%96%92%90%90%92%93%93%94%94%94%94%94%95%96%95%95%96%96%96%95%95%95%94%92%88%82%82%80%77%74%73%73%72%70%67%67%72%81%87%89%89%89%90%92%93%94%95%94%90%85%79%73%71%70%68%66%65%67%70%
91113141516161318202121222222171919222436323034384142413431254259492624212827262325222229232117131313131315182829281919192228312628303132292827262625242148414351535864555042434539373828254979958152302827273642454141383037403932464338383940414144464953565962636361595551495047444137343436363635343230272728292928272728303337404039373636353846494335
0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%20%20%20%60%60%60%65%75%65%33%28%23%18%10%5%5%3%3%10%2%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%2%2%2%2%3%7%11%15%15%18%20%35%35%35%35%35%35%25%24%22%21%20%20%36%36%36%36%36%36%29%27%24%21%21%21%18%18%18%18%18%18%11%11%11%12%13%13%12%11%11%11%11%11%17%17%17%18%19%20%35%35%35%35%35%35%43%43%43%43%43%43%53%53%53%53%53%53%49%50%50%50%50%50%49%49%47%46%45%43%41%40%38%37%36%35%35%34%34%34%34%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%34%34%33%32%31%30%29%28%27%26%26%
53%89%55%74%38%66%23%71%93%97%94%82%93%90%88%94%73%66%70%65%92%99%99%83%86%42%46%40%63%74%95%99%92%92%69%55%68%37%53%47%54%72%42%87%51%57%58%68%74%75%75%82%88%77%92%92%82%82%82%82%82%82%82%82%79%76%37%40%82%82%82%82%82%82%50%49%82%77%82%82%33%45%53%33%74%79%44%24%60%55%46%61%65%65%65%65%60%56%65%60%65%61%64%64%64%65%65%64%62%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%65%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%
2%84%46%55%12%41%0%56%86%96%96%61%94%78%73%87%54%40%49%51%86%98%98%65%74%0%2%2%52%88%92%99%99%96%43%5%42%1%13%9%17%49%4%71%4%5%25%41%64%56%58%71%81%60%97%94%96%94%88%88%88%88%89%89%73%61%1%5%83%75%85%91%74%76%3%3%67%51%66%64%0%32%50%0%52%57%54%9%89%78%57%92%100%100%100%100%88%78%99%87%100%90%95%97%97%97%99%97%92%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%98%96%94%96%98%100%96%91%88%89%92%93%89%82%78%76%75%75%77%80%82%90%100%92%90%89%87%84%80%78%85%93%99%100%98%96%92%88%85%85%86%85%84%83%
0.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.20.20.20.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.30.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1
88888888888888777666655666666666655554444445555444333222332222233333334433323344555544554443221111111000111111111111

Deep-sky core signals · best hour 22:00

Cloud & transparency first

Select any metric to open full-width details

Best Imaging Window

22:00–06:00 · 8 h

Why this window
  • A continuous 8.0 hours meets the deep-sky imaging threshold.
  • V2 window grade: usable; selected using quality, lower-percentile performance, duration and confidence.
  • Mean window cloud 5.6%。
  • Mean Transparency index 13.9 (lower is better).
  • CloudModelmeanAgreement 70%。
Mean score
7.6/10
20th percentile
7.4/10
Window utility
8/10
Cloud range
0%–11.8%
Mean transparency
13.9
Maximum gust
22 km/h
Minimum dew-point spread
1°C
Mean Model Agreement
70%
Mean Forecast Confidence
90%
TimeScoreCloudTransparencyWind / gustDew-point spreadMoon alt.
22:008.2/109%1410 / 20 km/h4°C
23:007.6/1011.8%1512 / 21 km/h2°C7.5°
00:007.5/109.8%1312 / 21 km/h1°C16.1°
01:007.5/106.7%1511 / 22 km/h2°C25.4°
02:007.1/105.9%159 / 22 km/h1°C34.8°
03:007.6/101.6%137 / 22 km/h2°C44.3°
04:007.5/100%136 / 17 km/h1°C53.1°
05:007.5/100%136 / 19 km/h2°C60.4°
Primary signalsCloud9%The primary deep-sky signal; lower is better.8.7/10Favourable

Hourly cloud and independent models

Astrospheric Cloud is the primary official field. RDPS, HRDPS, GFS, ICON and NBM are independent Open-Meteo model results and are not presented as Astrospheric data.

TimeOfficial CloudValue usedRDPSHRDPSGFSICONNBM
22:009%9%0%0%0%5%17%
23:0011.8%11.8%12%0%0%35%15%
00:009.8%9.8%0%0%0%26%9%
01:006.7%6.7%6%0%0%30%10%
02:005.9%5.9%6%1%0%57%11%
03:001.6%1.6%0%1%2%31%13%
04:000%0%0%45%4%33%14%
05:000%0%0%43%4%59%18%
Primary signalsTransparencyIndex 14Astrospheric index; lower is better.5.7/10Caution

Transparency and smoke proxies

Transparency comes from the official Astrospheric API; AOD and PM2.5 are CAMS/Open-Meteo air-quality proxies.

TimeTransparencyAODPM2.5
22:00140.28.4 µg/m³
23:00150.28.2 µg/m³
00:00130.28 µg/m³
01:00150.17.8 µg/m³
02:00150.17.4 µg/m³
03:00130.17.1 µg/m³
04:00130.16.8 µg/m³
05:00130.16.5 µg/m³
Supporting conditionsSeeing4/5Shown for context, with low weight in the deep-sky score.8/10Favourable

Hourly Seeing

Seeing comes from the official Astrospheric API. It remains visible but contributes only 4% to the V2 deep-sky condition score.

TimeSeeing
22:004/5
23:004/5
00:004/5
01:004/5
02:004/5
03:003/5
04:003/5
05:004/5
Supporting conditionsWind10.1 km/h · NE 54°Gust 19.8 km/h。8.5/10Favourable

Hourly wind

Sustained wind, gusts and direction jointly describe tracking and equipment wind risk.

TimeWind speedGustWind direction
22:0010.1 km/h19.8 km/hNE 54°
23:0011.5 km/h21.2 km/hNE 61°
00:0011.5 km/h21.2 km/hE 69°
01:0010.8 km/h21.6 km/hE 81°
02:009.4 km/h22 km/hE 97°
03:007.2 km/h22 km/hSE 117°
04:006.5 km/h17.3 km/hE 106°
05:006.5 km/h18.7 km/hE 90°
Supporting conditionsDew RiskDew-point spread 4°CTemperature 18°C · Dew point 14°C。8.5/10Favourable

Hourly dew risk

A smaller dew-point spread means condensation is more likely on optics and equipment. Missing values are not inferred.

TimeTemperatureDew pointDew-point spreadHumidity
22:0018°C14°C4°C80%
23:0017°C15°C2°C86%
00:0016°C15°C1°C91%
01:0016°C14°C2°C93%
02:0015°C14°C1°C94%
03:0015°C13°C2°C94%
04:0014°C13°C1°C93%
05:0014°C12°C2°C93%
Supporting conditionsMoonlight63.7% · Altitude 0°Last Quarter; a bright Moon reduces faint-target contrast.9.4/10Favourable

Hourly moonlight

Moon illumination is evaluated together with altitude; impact drops substantially below the horizon.

TimeIlluminationAltitudeAzimuth
22:0063.7%51.5°
23:0063.2%7.5°62.1°
00:0062.8%16.1°72.2°
01:0062.3%25.4°82.3°
02:0061.8%34.8°92.9°
03:0061.4%44.3°105°
04:0060.9%53.1°120.1°
05:0060.5%60.4°140.3°
Supporting conditionsDarknessAstronomical darkness 6.6 hAstronomical darkness 22:10–04:46。9.6/10Favourable

Sun altitude and astronomical darkness

Astronomical darkness begins below −18° solar altitude; the best-window gate allows the Sun below −12°.

TimeSun altitudeAstronomical darkness
22:00-17.1°No
23:00-24.4°Yes
00:00-29.7°Yes
01:00-32.5°Yes
02:00-32.4°Yes
03:00-29.4°Yes
04:00-24°Yes
05:00-16.7°No
Supporting conditionsModel AgreementHigh · spread 17%5 independent models。9.6/10Favourable

Hourly multi-model agreement

V2 selects models by forecast horizon and measures agreement with a weighted median, MAD and maximum spread. Fetch time is never presented as model initialization time.

TimeAgreementWeighted median cloudMaximum spreadModel count
22:0095.8%0%17%5
23:0061.2%12%35%5
00:0093.5%0%26%5
01:0077.5%6%30%5
02:0073.3%6%57%5
03:0087.2%2%31%5
04:0053.7%14%45%5
05:0040.3%18%59%5
Supporting conditionsForecast Confidence85%Combines model agreement, forecast horizon and data completeness.8.5/10Favourable

Forecast Confidence V2

Forecast Confidence is separate from condition quality. It combines model agreement, Astrospheric alignment, freshness and coverage, then applies a forecast-horizon cap.

TimeConfidenceModel agreementAstrospheric alignmentForecast-horizon cap
22:0094.4%95.8%85%100%
23:0082.5%61.2%99.7%100%
00:0093%93.5%83.7%100%
01:0089.6%77.5%98.8%100%
02:0087.9%73.3%99.8%100%
03:0094.1%87.2%99.3%100%
04:0073.3%53.7%76.7%100%
05:0065.6%40.3%70%100%
Cloud trend

Cloud cover improves through the night.

Dew trend

Dew-point spread is broadly stable.

Moonlight impact

The Moon is above the horizon during the primary window and will reduce faint-target contrast.

Forecast stability

Models show some disagreement; check again just before departure.

Model consensus

Multi-model cloud at the best hour

5 models · Maximum spread 17%

RDPS
0%
HRDPS
0%
GFS
0%
ICON
5%
NBM
17%

RDPS, HRDPS, GFS, ICON and NBM come from independent Open-Meteo model feeds, not the Astrospheric Pro Ensemble. V2 selects models by forecast horizon and uses fixed prior weights. Smoke proxies: PM2.5 8.4 µg/m³ · AOD 0.2

Moonlight & twilight

Astronomical conditions at the best hour

All times are Glenlea local time

Moon phase / illuminationLast Quarter · 63.7%
Altitude / azimuth0° · 51.5°
Moonrise21:58
Moonset before nightfall13:42

Moon above horizon in primary window

Sunset20:11
Civil dusk20:46
Nautical dusk21:26
Astronomical night begins22:10
Astronomical night ends04:46
Nautical dawn05:30
Civil dawn06:10
Sunrise06:44

Upcoming nights

Deep-sky imaging ranking

Ranked by V2 continuous-window quality; select a night for its briefing

Observing nightSep 2 · WedWorth the tripDew-point spread is shrinking quickly; condensation risk is risingBest continuous window22:00–06:00 · 8 hConfidence85%7.8/10 V2
Overall score7.6/10 mean7.1/10–8.2/10
Cloud5.6% mean0%–11.8%
Transparency13.9 mean13–15
Seeing3.8/5 mean3/5–4/5
Wind speed9.2 km/h mean6.5 km/h–11.5 km/h
Gust20.5 km/h mean17.3 km/h–22 km/h
Dew-point spread1.9°C mean1°C–4°C
Moon altitude30.2° mean0°–60.4°
Astronomical darkness
22:10–04:46
Data coverage
8 h · 22:00–05:00
V2 usable / excellent windows
1 / 0
Scoring method
Best continuous window · mean + 20th percentile
TimeScoreCloudTransparencyWind / gustDew-point spreadMoon alt.
22:008.2/109%1410 / 20 km/h4°C
23:007.6/1011.8%1512 / 21 km/h2°C7.5°
00:007.5/109.8%1312 / 21 km/h1°C16.1°
01:007.5/106.7%1511 / 22 km/h2°C25.4°
02:007.1/105.9%159 / 22 km/h1°C34.8°
03:007.6/101.6%137 / 22 km/h2°C44.3°
04:007.5/100%136 / 17 km/h1°C53.1°
05:007.5/100%136 / 19 km/h2°C60.4°
Observing nightSep 3 · ThuForecast uncertainNo single dominant risk; check again immediately before departureBest continuous windowNo continuous window meets the thresholdConfidence57%4.8/10 V2
Overall score3/10 mean2.5/10–5.1/10
Cloud80.6% mean47.5%–97.7%
Transparency27.9 mean20–29
Seeing1.4/5 mean0/5–3/5
Wind speed9.5 km/h mean1.4 km/h–15.1 km/h
Gust28 km/h mean21.2 km/h–48.6 km/h
Dew-point spread0.6°C mean0°C–1°C
Moon altitude23.9° mean-4.1°–55°
Astronomical darkness
22:07–04:48
Data coverage
8 h · 22:00–05:00
V2 usable / excellent windows
0 / 0
Scoring method
Best continuous window · mean + 20th percentile
TimeScoreCloudTransparencyWind / gustDew-point spreadMoon alt.
22:003.6/1069.8%2912 / 49 km/h1°C-4.1°
23:005.1/1047.5%206 / 26 km/h0°C2.2°
00:002.5/1072.2%291 / 24 km/h1°C9.7°
01:002.5/1097.7%296 / 21 km/h1°C18.2°
02:002.5/1078.8%2910 / 28 km/h1°C27.3°
03:002.5/1092.5%2913 / 27 km/h1°C36.7°
04:002.5/1089.4%2915 / 26 km/h0°C46.1°
05:002.5/1096.9%2912 / 23 km/h0°C55°
Best in this forecastSep 4 · FriWorth the tripNo single dominant risk; check again immediately before departureBest continuous window00:00–04:00 · 4 hConfidence82%7.9/10 V2
Overall score7/10 mean4.5/10–8/10
Cloud17% mean0.4%–54.9%
Transparency15.5 mean13–23
Seeing3.5/5 mean3/5–4/5
Wind speed10.8 km/h mean8.6 km/h–13 km/h
Gust24.2 km/h mean19.1 km/h–31 km/h
Dew-point spread1.1°C mean0°C–3°C
Moon altitude16.3° mean-8.2°–46.2°
Astronomical darkness
22:04–04:50
Data coverage
8 h · 22:00–05:00
V2 usable / excellent windows
2 / 1
Scoring method
Best continuous window · mean + 20th percentile
TimeScoreCloudTransparencyWind / gustDew-point spreadMoon alt.
22:007.6/1017.2%139 / 28 km/h3°C-8.2°
23:006.6/1023.9%2013 / 19 km/h1°C-3.2°
00:008/102.4%1312 / 19 km/h1°C2.8°
01:007.8/100.4%1311 / 19 km/h0°C10.2°
02:007.7/102.4%1310 / 22 km/h1°C18.5°
03:007.3/106.7%1311 / 28 km/h1°C27.5°
04:006.1/1027.8%1611 / 31 km/h1°C36.8°
05:004.5/1054.9%2310 / 26 km/h1°C46.2°
Observing nightSep 5 · SatForecast uncertainCritical weather fields are missingBest continuous window02:00–03:00 · 1 hConfidence53%5.5/10 V2
Overall score5.7/10 mean2.5/10–7.7/10
Cloud29.6% mean0%–72%
Transparency13.2 mean13–14
Seeing3/5 mean3/5–3/5
Wind speed11.2 km/h mean9.4 km/h–13.7 km/h
Gust51.3 km/h mean42.1 km/h–63.7 km/h
Dew-point spread2°C mean1°C–4°C
Moon altitude8° mean-12.3°–35.5°
Astronomical darkness
22:02–04:52
Data coverage
8 h · 22:00–05:00
V2 usable / excellent windows
0 / 0
Scoring method
Best continuous window · mean + 20th percentile
TimeScoreCloudTransparencyWind / gustDew-point spreadMoon alt.
22:007.7/100%1314 / 53 km/h4°C-12.3°
23:007.5/100%1314 / 58 km/h3°C-9.2°
00:007.5/100.8%1312 / 64 km/h2°C-4.3°
01:006.9/103.1%1411 / 55 km/h1°C1.7°
02:006.6/1021%9 / 50 km/h1.3°C
03:004.5/1069%10 / 42 km/h1.7°C17.3°
04:002.5/1071%10 / 43 km/h1.5°C26.2°
05:002.5/1072%10 / 45 km/h1.5°C35.5°
Observing nightSep 6 · SunForecast uncertainCritical weather fields are missingBest continuous window22:00–23:00 · 1 hConfidence65%5.4/10 V2
Overall score3.6/10 mean2.5/10–7.5/10
Cloud76.8% mean5%–100%
Transparency— mean—–—
Seeing— mean—–—
Wind speed11.9 km/h mean7.1 km/h–16.7 km/h
Gust39 km/h mean30.2 km/h–44.6 km/h
Dew-point spread0.4°C mean0.2°C–1.2°C
Moon altitude-0.6° mean-15.9°–23.9°
Astronomical darkness
21:59–04:54
Data coverage
8 h · 22:00–05:00
V2 usable / excellent windows
0 / 0
Scoring method
Best continuous window · mean + 20th percentile
TimeScoreCloudTransparencyWind / gustDew-point spreadMoon alt.
22:007.5/105%17 / 45 km/h1.2°C-15.9°
23:006.1/1033%15 / 41 km/h0.7°C-14.9°
00:002.5/1076%11 / 41 km/h0.5°C-11.9°
01:002.5/10100%14 / 38 km/h0.3°C-6.9°
02:002.5/10100%7 / 30 km/h0.2°C-0.5°
03:002.5/10100%7 / 37 km/h0.2°C6.6°
04:002.5/10100%9 / 40 km/h0.2°C15°
05:002.5/10100%15 / 39 km/h0.2°C23.9°
Observing nightSep 7 · MonForecast uncertainCritical weather fields are missingBest continuous windowNo continuous window meets the thresholdConfidence50%2.5/10 V2
Overall score2.5/10 mean2.5/10–2.5/10
Cloud90.5% mean84%–100%
Transparency— mean—–—
Seeing— mean—–—
Wind speed19.1 km/h mean16.3 km/h–22.7 km/h
Gust56.4 km/h mean49.3 km/h–62.6 km/h
Dew-point spread1.1°C mean0.7°C–2°C
Moon altitude-9.1° mean-20.2°–12°
Astronomical darkness
21:56–04:56
Data coverage
8 h · 22:00–05:00
V2 usable / excellent windows
0 / 0
Scoring method
Best continuous window · mean + 20th percentile
TimeScoreCloudTransparencyWind / gustDew-point spreadMoon alt.
22:002.5/10100%23 / 63 km/h0.9°C-18.9°
23:002.5/1092%22 / 63 km/h0.9°C-20.2°
00:002.5/1088%19 / 61 km/h0.7°C-19.1°
01:002.5/1085%18 / 59 km/h0.7°C-15.8°
02:002.5/1084%16 / 55 km/h0.7°C-10.6°
03:002.5/1091%17 / 51 km/h1°C-3.9°
04:002.5/10100%19 / 49 km/h1.5°C3.5°
05:002.5/1084%19 / 50 km/h2°C12°
Observing nightSep 8 · TueForecast uncertainCritical weather fields are missingBest continuous windowNo continuous window meets the thresholdConfidence50%6.2/10 V2
Overall score4.6/10 mean2.5/10–6.7/10
Cloud59.2% mean38%–78%
Transparency— mean—–—
Seeing— mean—–—
Wind speed14.5 km/h mean13.7 km/h–15.8 km/h
Gust28.9 km/h mean27 km/h–33.1 km/h
Dew-point spread1.8°C mean1°C–2.6°C
Moon altitude-17.3° mean-25.7°–0.4°
Astronomical darkness
21:54–04:58
Data coverage
8 h · 22:00–05:00
V2 usable / excellent windows
0 / 0
Scoring method
Best continuous window · mean + 20th percentile
TimeScoreCloudTransparencyWind / gustDew-point spreadMoon alt.
22:006.7/1038%15 / 29 km/h2.6°C-21°
23:006.3/1043%14 / 29 km/h2.1°C-24.5°
00:005.5/1045%14 / 28 km/h2.2°C-25.7°
01:005.5/1051%14 / 27 km/h2.1°C-24.3°
02:005.1/1067%14 / 27 km/h1.6°C-20.6°
03:002.5/1075%14 / 28 km/h1.3°C-14.9°
04:002.5/1077%15 / 30 km/h1.1°C-7.7°
05:002.5/1078%16 / 33 km/h1°C0.4°

Forecast Verification · Shadow Mode

Long-term model performance & local calibration

The system archives each original forecast and checks it when reliable observations arrive. It currently records and suggests only; it cannot change the V2 score or tonight’s verdict.

Cloud Matches5Insufficient evidence
View Forecast Accuracy →
Complete hourly forecastCloud, transparency, wind, dew, Moon, models and field sourcesView advanced data
Local time22:00Score8.2/10Cloud9%Transparency14Wind / gust10.1/19.8 km/hDew-point spread4°CMoon altitudeModel agreement83.4%
Astrospheric Cloud
9%
Cloud used by scoring
9%
Transparency
14
Seeing
4/5
Wind
10.1 km/h · NE 54°
Gust
19.8 km/h
Temperature / Dew point / Dew-point spread
18°C / 14°C / 4°C
Humidity / Precipitation probability
80% / 0%
Sun altitude / astronomical dark
-17.1° / No
Moon illumination / Altitude / azimuth
63.7% / 0° / 51.5°
Model agreement / spread
83.4% / 17%

Raw independent-model results

ModelTotal cloudPrecipitation probability
RDPS0%
HRDPS0%
GFS0%0%
ICON5%0%
NBM17%0%

Field sources

FieldSource
cloudAstrospheric
transparencyAstrospheric RDPS + RAP smoke
seeingAstrospheric RDPS
temperature_dew_windAstrospheric RDPS
humidity_gust_precipitationOpen-Meteo multi-model
short_range_public_forecastECCC City Page Weather (experimental)
moon_sun_twilightAstronomy Engine (Moon) + Astral (Sun/twilight)
smoke_proxyCAMS Global via Open-Meteo
Local time23:00Score7.6/10Cloud11.8%Transparency15Wind / gust11.5/21.2 km/hDew-point spread2°CMoon altitude7.5°Model agreement67%
Astrospheric Cloud
11.8%
Cloud used by scoring
11.8%
Transparency
15
Seeing
4/5
Wind
11.5 km/h · NE 61°
Gust
21.2 km/h
Temperature / Dew point / Dew-point spread
17°C / 15°C / 2°C
Humidity / Precipitation probability
86% / 0%
Sun altitude / astronomical dark
-24.4° / Yes
Moon illumination / Altitude / azimuth
63.2% / 7.5° / 62.1°
Model agreement / spread
67% / 35%

Raw independent-model results

ModelTotal cloudPrecipitation probability
RDPS12%
HRDPS0%
GFS0%0%
ICON35%0%
NBM15%0%

Field sources

FieldSource
cloudAstrospheric
transparencyAstrospheric RDPS + RAP smoke
seeingAstrospheric RDPS
temperature_dew_windAstrospheric RDPS
humidity_gust_precipitationOpen-Meteo multi-model
short_range_public_forecastECCC City Page Weather (experimental)
moon_sun_twilightAstronomy Engine (Moon) + Astral (Sun/twilight)
smoke_proxyCAMS Global via Open-Meteo
Local time00:00Score7.5/10Cloud9.8%Transparency13Wind / gust11.5/21.2 km/hDew-point spread1°CMoon altitude16.1°Model agreement74.5%
Astrospheric Cloud
9.8%
Cloud used by scoring
9.8%
Transparency
13
Seeing
4/5
Wind
11.5 km/h · E 69°
Gust
21.2 km/h
Temperature / Dew point / Dew-point spread
16°C / 15°C / 1°C
Humidity / Precipitation probability
91% / 0%
Sun altitude / astronomical dark
-29.7° / Yes
Moon illumination / Altitude / azimuth
62.8% / 16.1° / 72.2°
Model agreement / spread
74.5% / 26%

Raw independent-model results

ModelTotal cloudPrecipitation probability
RDPS0%
HRDPS0%
GFS0%0%
ICON26%0%
NBM9%0%

Field sources

FieldSource
cloudAstrospheric
transparencyAstrospheric RDPS + RAP smoke
seeingAstrospheric RDPS
temperature_dew_windAstrospheric RDPS
humidity_gust_precipitationOpen-Meteo multi-model
short_range_public_forecastECCC City Page Weather (experimental)
moon_sun_twilightAstronomy Engine (Moon) + Astral (Sun/twilight)
smoke_proxyCAMS Global via Open-Meteo
Local time01:00Score7.5/10Cloud6.7%Transparency15Wind / gust10.8/21.6 km/hDew-point spread2°CMoon altitude25.4°Model agreement71.6%
Astrospheric Cloud
6.7%
Cloud used by scoring
6.7%
Transparency
15
Seeing
4/5
Wind
10.8 km/h · E 81°
Gust
21.6 km/h
Temperature / Dew point / Dew-point spread
16°C / 14°C / 2°C
Humidity / Precipitation probability
93% / 0%
Sun altitude / astronomical dark
-32.5° / Yes
Moon illumination / Altitude / azimuth
62.3% / 25.4° / 82.3°
Model agreement / spread
71.6% / 30%

Raw independent-model results

ModelTotal cloudPrecipitation probability
RDPS6%
HRDPS0%
GFS0%0%
ICON30%0%
NBM10%0%

Field sources

FieldSource
cloudAstrospheric
transparencyAstrospheric RDPS + RAP smoke
seeingAstrospheric RDPS
temperature_dew_windAstrospheric RDPS
humidity_gust_precipitationOpen-Meteo multi-model
short_range_public_forecastECCC City Page Weather (experimental)
moon_sun_twilightAstronomy Engine (Moon) + Astral (Sun/twilight)
smoke_proxyCAMS Global via Open-Meteo
Local time02:00Score7.1/10Cloud5.9%Transparency15Wind / gust9.4/22 km/hDew-point spread1°CMoon altitude34.8°Model agreement45.5%
Astrospheric Cloud
5.9%
Cloud used by scoring
5.9%
Transparency
15
Seeing
4/5
Wind
9.4 km/h · E 97°
Gust
22 km/h
Temperature / Dew point / Dew-point spread
15°C / 14°C / 1°C
Humidity / Precipitation probability
94% / 0%
Sun altitude / astronomical dark
-32.4° / Yes
Moon illumination / Altitude / azimuth
61.8% / 34.8° / 92.9°
Model agreement / spread
45.5% / 57%

Raw independent-model results

ModelTotal cloudPrecipitation probability
RDPS6%
HRDPS1%
GFS0%0%
ICON57%0%
NBM11%0%

Field sources

FieldSource
cloudAstrospheric
transparencyAstrospheric RDPS + RAP smoke
seeingAstrospheric RDPS
temperature_dew_windAstrospheric RDPS
humidity_gust_precipitationOpen-Meteo multi-model
short_range_public_forecastECCC City Page Weather (experimental)
moon_sun_twilightAstronomy Engine (Moon) + Astral (Sun/twilight)
smoke_proxyCAMS Global via Open-Meteo
Local time03:00Score7.6/10Cloud1.6%Transparency13Wind / gust7.2/22 km/hDew-point spread2°CMoon altitude44.3°Model agreement70.1%
Astrospheric Cloud
1.6%
Cloud used by scoring
1.6%
Transparency
13
Seeing
3/5
Wind
7.2 km/h · SE 117°
Gust
22 km/h
Temperature / Dew point / Dew-point spread
15°C / 13°C / 2°C
Humidity / Precipitation probability
94% / 0%
Sun altitude / astronomical dark
-29.4° / Yes
Moon illumination / Altitude / azimuth
61.4% / 44.3° / 105°
Model agreement / spread
70.1% / 31%

Raw independent-model results

ModelTotal cloudPrecipitation probability
RDPS0%
HRDPS1%
GFS2%0%
ICON31%0%
NBM13%0%

Field sources

FieldSource
cloudAstrospheric
transparencyAstrospheric RDPS + RAP smoke
seeingAstrospheric RDPS
temperature_dew_windAstrospheric RDPS
humidity_gust_precipitationOpen-Meteo multi-model
short_range_public_forecastECCC City Page Weather (experimental)
moon_sun_twilightAstronomy Engine (Moon) + Astral (Sun/twilight)
smoke_proxyCAMS Global via Open-Meteo
Local time04:00Score7.5/10Cloud0%Transparency13Wind / gust6.5/17.3 km/hDew-point spread1°CMoon altitude53.1°Model agreement56.4%
Astrospheric Cloud
0%
Cloud used by scoring
0%
Transparency
13
Seeing
3/5
Wind
6.5 km/h · E 106°
Gust
17.3 km/h
Temperature / Dew point / Dew-point spread
14°C / 13°C / 1°C
Humidity / Precipitation probability
93% / 0%
Sun altitude / astronomical dark
-24° / Yes
Moon illumination / Altitude / azimuth
60.9% / 53.1° / 120.1°
Model agreement / spread
56.4% / 45%

Raw independent-model results

ModelTotal cloudPrecipitation probability
RDPS0%
HRDPS45%
GFS4%0%
ICON33%0%
NBM14%0%

Field sources

FieldSource
cloudAstrospheric
transparencyAstrospheric RDPS + RAP smoke
seeingAstrospheric RDPS
temperature_dew_windAstrospheric RDPS
humidity_gust_precipitationOpen-Meteo multi-model
short_range_public_forecastECCC City Page Weather (experimental)
moon_sun_twilightAstronomy Engine (Moon) + Astral (Sun/twilight)
smoke_proxyCAMS Global via Open-Meteo
Local time05:00Score7.5/10Cloud0%Transparency13Wind / gust6.5/18.7 km/hDew-point spread2°CMoon altitude60.4°Model agreement42.4%
Astrospheric Cloud
0%
Cloud used by scoring
0%
Transparency
13
Seeing
4/5
Wind
6.5 km/h · E 90°
Gust
18.7 km/h
Temperature / Dew point / Dew-point spread
14°C / 12°C / 2°C
Humidity / Precipitation probability
93% / 0%
Sun altitude / astronomical dark
-16.7° / No
Moon illumination / Altitude / azimuth
60.5% / 60.4° / 140.3°
Model agreement / spread
42.4% / 59%

Raw independent-model results

ModelTotal cloudPrecipitation probability
RDPS0%
HRDPS43%
GFS4%0%
ICON59%0%
NBM18%0%

Field sources

FieldSource
cloudAstrospheric
transparencyAstrospheric RDPS + RAP smoke
seeingAstrospheric RDPS
temperature_dew_windAstrospheric RDPS
humidity_gust_precipitationOpen-Meteo multi-model
short_range_public_forecastECCC City Page Weather (experimental)
moon_sun_twilightAstronomy Engine (Moon) + Astral (Sun/twilight)
smoke_proxyCAMS Global via Open-Meteo
Sources, freshness & coverageAstrospheric, Environment Canada, CAMS and independent numerical models5 core sources · independent models 5/5
Official Astrospheric APISep 2 19:36 CDTFresh15 min ago

Coverage Sep 2 16:00 CDT to Sep 6 01:00 CDT

Official model initialization:Sep 2 13:00 CDT · run age 6.6 h

  • Cloud:Coverage Sep 2 16:00 CDT to Sep 6 01:00 CDT
  • Transparency:Coverage Sep 2 16:00 CDT to Sep 6 01:00 CDT
  • Seeing:Coverage Sep 2 16:00 CDT to Sep 6 01:00 CDT
  • Temperature:Coverage Sep 2 16:00 CDT to Sep 6 01:00 CDT
  • DewPoint:Coverage Sep 2 16:00 CDT to Sep 6 01:00 CDT
  • WindDirection:Coverage Sep 2 16:00 CDT to Sep 6 01:00 CDT
  • Wind:Coverage Sep 2 16:00 CDT to Sep 6 01:00 CDT

Provider:— · Status:Available

Independent models (Open-Meteo)Sep 2 19:37 CDTFresh14 min ago

Coverage Sep 2 19:00 CDT to Sep 9 18:00 CDT

Independent models expose fetch time only. The current upstream responses do not provide a common initialization time, so it remains N/A and fetch time is not mislabelled as model run time.

  • GFS:Coverage Sep 2 19:00 CDT to Sep 9 18:00 CDT
  • HRDPS:Coverage Sep 2 19:00 CDT to Sep 4 13:00 CDT
  • ICON:Coverage Sep 2 19:00 CDT to Sep 9 18:00 CDT
  • NBM:Coverage Sep 2 19:00 CDT to Sep 9 18:00 CDT
  • RDPS:Coverage Sep 2 19:00 CDT to Sep 6 01:00 CDT

Provider:Open-Meteo · Status:Available

Environment Canada observationsSep 2 19:00 CDTFresh52 min ago

Coverage not provided

Provider:Environment and Climate Change Canada SWOB · Status:Available

Environment Canada nowcastSep 2 19:02 CDTFresh49 min ago

Coverage Sep 2 20:00 CDT to Sep 3 19:00 CDT

Provider:Environment and Climate Change Canada City Page Weather · Status:Available

CAMS smoke / air-quality proxySep 2 19:36 CDTFresh15 min ago

Coverage Sep 2 19:00 CDT to Sep 7 18:00 CDT

Provider:CAMS Global via Open-Meteo · Status:Available

RDPSSep 2 19:37 CDTFresh14 min ago

Coverage Sep 2 19:00 CDT to Sep 6 01:00 CDT

Provider:Open-Meteo independent model · Status:Available

HRDPSSep 2 19:37 CDTFresh14 min ago

Coverage Sep 2 19:00 CDT to Sep 4 13:00 CDT

Provider:Open-Meteo independent model · Status:Available

GFSSep 2 19:36 CDTFresh15 min ago

Coverage Sep 2 19:00 CDT to Sep 9 18:00 CDT

Provider:Open-Meteo independent model · Status:Available

ICONSep 2 19:37 CDTFresh15 min ago

Coverage Sep 2 19:00 CDT to Sep 9 18:00 CDT

Provider:Open-Meteo independent model · Status:Available

NBMSep 2 19:37 CDTFresh15 min ago

Coverage Sep 2 19:00 CDT to Sep 9 18:00 CDT

Provider:Open-Meteo independent model · Status:Available

Data boundaries & known limitationsMissing fields remain missing; nothing is guessedRead notes
  • Astrospheric v2 exposes Cloud, Transparency, Seeing, Temperature, DewPoint, WindDirection and Wind; it does not expose individual Pro Cloud Ensemble members.
  • RDPS, HRDPS, GFS, ICON and NBM comparison is independently sourced through Open-Meteo and may differ from the Astrospheric app's Pro ensemble processing.
  • CAMS aerosol data is a coarse smoke/haze proxy, not local satellite cloud-motion analysis.
  • ECCC City Page Weather is an official but experimental city forecast for Winnipeg; it is a short-range cross-check, not a Glenlea cloud-percentage model.
  • The final decision remains forecast guidance; verify the sky and road/site access before travel.